In 2024, conservatives made historic gains with Latino voters. Two years later, much of that progress appears to have evaporated. NBC News exit polls show Latino voters backed Democratic candidates 62 percent to 35 percent, a 27-point margin. The AP Voter Poll found only about one-third of Hispanic voters backed the Republican in their House race, down from roughly 4 in 10 who voted for Trump two years ago.
The shift was particularly striking in Texas. According to USA Today, in 2024 Trump won 55% of the Latino vote in the Lone Star State. But Senator-elect James Talarico was able to do the unthinkable and decisively won the state with roughly 6 out of 10 Hispanic voters. That is roughly a 30-point swing in favor of the Democrats.
What explains the shift? It may be tempting to blame immigration enforcement. Many Hispanic communities are unhappy with how the Trump administration has handled the issue. But only 15 percent of Hispanic voters named immigration as their top issue.
Meanwhile, the economy and cost of living were the top issue for 45 percent. As it was first said in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid!”
This is where Republicans have a problem. Part of what drew Latino voters to Trump in 2024 was a contrast. Many had watched the Biden years and remembered the economy of Trump’s first term. President Trump ran on cutting taxes and letting people keep more of what they earn, and he delivered in part. He made the 2017 tax cuts permanent and signed a law ending federal income tax on tips. These are core conservative principles.
But those gains were undercut by tariffs. In fact, according to an NBC Exit poll, only 14% of voters believed tariffs had a positive impact in their area. This is unsurprising, considering that in August 2026, a Yale Budget Lab estimated that tariffs cost the typical American household approximately $1,100 annually.
Republicans cannot claim to champion conservative principles like lowering direct taxes while supporting indirect taxes that raise costs on American families and expect to win. Tariffs undermine the very economic philosophy that helped the party make inroads with Latino voters in the first place. If Republicans want to win those voters back, they need to show that their commitment to conservative principles like economic opportunity extends beyond campaign promises.
But that means more than opposing tariffs. It means removing unnecessary barriers to housing construction, reducing burdensome licensing requirements, making it easier for small businesses to compete, and getting the government out of the economy unless strictly necessary to prevent harm. These are practical ways to give families more opportunities to build wealth, earn a living, and get ahead.
Republicans did worse across demographic groups, particularly among Black voters and voters under 30.
A coalition built around one personality is not a lasting coalition. About four in 10 voters told AP they cast their House vote to express opposition to Trump, while fewer than two in 10 said they voted to express support. That opposition came despite a majority of voters viewing the Democratic Party unfavorably.
The answer to winning back Latino voters may be closer than either party thinks. A 2026 LIBRE Institute survey found that nearly seven in ten Latino voters believe the free market is the best way to build an economy that works for everyone. A separate LIBRE survey found that 74 percent of Latino voters believe they pay too much in taxes.
These findings point to an economic philosophy that resonates with Latino voters regardless of party affiliation. The opportunity is significant because conservatives have already demonstrated that this message can translate into votes just as it did in 2024. To do so, candidates must make free-market principles central to their economic agenda and consistently put them into practice.
Ultimately, voters want an economy that gives them the opportunity to get ahead. That means lower taxes, fewer barriers, and a government that knows when to get out of the way. For Republicans, 2028 is an opportunity to demonstrate once again that these principles can deliver. Earning back Latino voters will take more than promises. It will take results.
