President Donald Trump’s 2024 comeback may have many explanations, but one factor stands out above all others: the dramatic shift in the Latino vote. In a recent guest column in the Wall Street Journal, Democratic pollster Mark Penn and former New York City Council President Andrew Stein breakdown the electoral map, making it clear that Latinos played a decisive role in flipping key states, ultimately delivering Trump his victory.
From the Wall Street Journal:
According to CNN exit polls, Joe Biden outpolled Mr. Trump among Latinos nationwide by 33 points, 65% to 32%. Four years later, Kamala Harris’s lead was only 5 points, 51% to 46%. That 28-point shift is far greater than the move in Mr. Trump’s favor among blacks (2 points) or Asians (12 points), and Ms. Harris actually narrowed Mr. Trump’s advantage with white voters by 2 points.
Latino votes were decisive in most of the states that switched from Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump, and nowhere more so than in Nevada. In 2020, the exit poll found Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 61% to 35% among Latinos, who made up 17% of respondents. Four years later, Latinos were 18% of respondents and Mr. Trump led Ms. Harris, 49% to 47%. If we assume the exit polls reflect the actual results, the Latino shift from Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump was 84,188 votes, far in excess of Mr. Biden’s 2020 margin of 33,596.
If the Latino vote hadn’t moved, Ms. Harris would have won the election with 293 electoral votes. Latinos are growing in numbers, and unlike black voters they don’t have a 65-year history of supporting Democrats. Neither party should take them for granted.
This analysis is in line with what Our America has found in building our broad, diverse coalition of voters: Latino voters support timeless American values that empower everyone to thrive, including: equal opportunity, mutual respect and freedom of expression. Increasingly, Latino voters are voting their values.
Our America is a leader in this grassroots Latino movement in states such as Arizona and Georgia. Our Arizona grassroots director Paul Parisi recently attended the southern Arizona Turning Point Action Latino Coalition Kick Off in Pima.
“It’s clear that Latino voters are open to change,” Parisi said. “In the past, one political party has taken them for granted and other party has largely ignored them. That all changed with the last election, as Latino voters made clear, they are voting their values, not old political loyalties.”
